Pilot: Asia biotech, decoded for investors

Full transcript, with sources

Numbers in [brackets] link to the sources at the end of the section or episode. Chinese names are given in characters with Hanyu Pinyin; on air, Ning says them in Mandarin.

Why East-West Bio? 0:01

BasilWhy East-West Bio?

BasilBecause the centre of gravity in biotech dealmaking has shifted east, and most investors are still reading about it second-hand.

NingHere's the scale. In the first half of this year, Chinese drug licensing deals with overseas buyers were worth almost a hundred billion dollars. The data firm PharmCube puts that at fifty-eight percent of the global total. [1]

NingAnd eight of the world's ten biggest licensing deals in that half had a Chinese company as the seller. [2]

BasilSo if you invest in biotech, East or West, China is already in your pipeline. Whether you planned it or not.

BasilHere's the problem. The first signal usually shows up in Chinese: a regulator notice, an exchange filing, a trade press scoop. By the time it's in English, the price may have moved.

NingThat's why we read it in the original. Then we translate it into what it means for deals.

NingEach week we put a China deal next to its Western twin. We score deals on upfront cash, not headline value. On Chinese deals in the first half, upfront was under six percent. And we go beyond China, to Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Southeast Asia. [2]

Editor's note: the 5.8% upfront share (VCBeat) covers all of China's H1 2026 licensing deals, not only deals with overseas buyers.

BasilSo, why East-West Bio? Because, as far as we can tell, nobody else reads China's biotech story in the original Chinese and translates it into what it means for deals, from an investor's seat in Asia. That's the gap. This show is here to close it.

Sources

1. Jiemian, citing PharmCube: China's H1 2026 out-licensing about US$99.7B, 58% of the global total [Chinese]. https://www.jiemian.com/article/15121679.html

2. VCBeat: 8 of the top 10 global licensing deals in H1 2026 had Chinese sellers; upfront was 5.8% of total value. https://www.vcbeathealth.com/article/59866

Intro 1:37

BasilI'm Basil Lui. I invest globally, backing growth-stage companies with an Asia angle, from Singapore. And this is The East-West Bio Brief.

NingAnd I'm Ning, Basil's co-host. Basil brings the takes; I bring the numbers.

NingOur sources: China's drug regulator, Hong Kong stock exchange filings, Chinese trade and financial press, and company announcements, in the original Chinese.

NingEvery episode has the same spine. Inside China. An East versus West teardown. Our out-licensing scorecard: upfront versus headline. Asia beyond China. And Basil's one thing to watch.

BasilIt's built for business development teams, venture and crossover investors, and family offices.

BasilOne thing up front: what you'll hear are our personal views, backed by facts and sources, and not investment advice. So, here's the pilot.

Inside China 2:38

BasilOkay, let's go inside China. Ning, start with Beijing.

NingOn October sixteenth, China's commerce and science ministries proposed adding five biotech technologies to the country's export control list. [3]

NingCell and gene therapy platforms are on it, and so are gene-silencing RNA platforms. But licensing deals that don't transfer ownership would get automatic licensing. [3][4]

Editor's note: the draft says licensing that does not transfer ownership would be eligible for facilitation measures "such as automatic licensing" (适用自动许可等便利措施). It is a draft and not yet final.

BasilSo the asset can leave. The platform stays home.

NingExactly. And registration already applies, even to deals under way. Comments close November fifteenth. [3][4]

BasilFor anyone buying China rights, that's the document of the month. Next: the regulator.

NingChina's drug regulator fast-tracked Bayer's stroke-prevention pill, asundexian, and conditionally approved a Bristol Myers Squibb drug for multiple myeloma. That's from a state-run pharma news site. [5]

Editor's note: the NMPA approved asundexian through its priority review pathway.

BasilGlobal drugs reaching China faster. Now, the money.

NingChinese trade press reports that a start-up imaging the brain with ultrasound raised four hundred million yuan. HongShan, the former Sequoia China, is a new investor, and Tencent put in more. [6]

BasilHongShan and Tencent in the same round, for a device company. That tells you where Chinese growth money wants to be.

NingAnother start-up, with a Huntington's disease drug, raised nearly a hundred million yuan. Its drug is in Phase One, three years after the first lab work. [7]

BasilAnd a Shanghai brain-implant company closed seven hundred million yuan, co-led by state-backed funds. Brain tech in China is being funded like infrastructure. Hold that thought. [8]

Editor's note: NeuroXess's round was co-led by SDIC Unity Capital and SCGC, which are state-backed, and by Triwise Capital, a healthcare venture investor.

NingHong Kong. Hemay Pharmaceutical is listing under the exchange's rules for biotechs without revenue. Books opened October thirtieth, at about fifteen to nineteen Hong Kong dollars a share, with twenty-nine million US dollars from cornerstone investors. Trading is expected on November ninth. [9]

Editor's note: the indicative price range is HK$15.50–18.90. The public offer runs 30 Oct–4 Nov. This is a factual description of the terms, not a view on whether to subscribe.

NingAnd radiopharmaceutical company Sinotau passed its listing hearing on October twenty-eighth. Its lead radioactive cancer drug is expected to be approved in December. [10]

Editor's note: the December approval timing is the company's expectation as reported, not a certainty.

BasilTwo different tests. Hemay has an approved drug but no product revenue in its filing. Sinotau expects an approval in December. Watch how each one prices.

Editor's note: "Watch how each one prices" is an observation about market appetite, not a recommendation.

BasilHow's the sector priced?

NingChinese financial press reports that Hong Kong's main index of innovative drug stocks trades at about thirty-nine times trailing earnings. That's cheaper than it's been for about four-fifths of the past year. [11]

Editor's note: the index is the Hang Seng Stock Connect Innovative Drug & Healthcare Index. It traded at 39.45x trailing P/E, at the 19.38th percentile of the past year. The source is a fund-company market commentary published on Jiemian.

BasilSo listed China biotech sits near the cheap end of its range, while big pharma writes big cheques for the pipelines. That gap is what we're watching. And that's China this week.

Sources

3. MOFCOM and MOST, Announcement No. 48 of 2026 (draft additions to the export control catalogue; comments due 15 Nov) [Chinese]. https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/blgg/art/2026/art_1666fcaa24424766afe0683498ff0908.html

4. Ropes & Gray, "China proposes new restrictions on biopharmaceutical technology exports with immediate registration". https://www.ropesgray.com/en/insights/alerts/2026/10/china-proposes-new-restrictions-on-biopharmaceutical-technology-exports-with-immediate-registration

5. China Food and Drug Web (cnpharm), NMPA approvals [Chinese]. https://www.cnpharm.com/c/2026-10-28/1109526.shtml

6. VCBeat (动脉网), Kunwei RMB 400M round [Chinese]. https://www.vbdata.cn/1519102080

7. VCBeat, Libo Bio Series A [Chinese]. https://www.vbdata.cn/1519102417

8. NeuroXess, RMB 700M Series B. https://en.neuroxess.com/news/neuroxess-completes-rmb-700-million-series-b-financing-co-led-by-sdic-unity-capital-scgc-and-triwise-capital/

9. Sina Finance, Hemay Pharmaceutical IPO terms [Chinese]. https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggipo/2026-10-30/doc-iniwxzqe2451165.shtml

10. New Times Space, Sinotau listing hearing [Chinese]. https://www.newtimespace.com/zh-hk/research/1457695.html

11. Jiemian, Hang Seng Stock Connect Innovative Drug & Healthcare Index valuation [Chinese]. https://www.jiemian.com/article/15250833.html

East vs West 5:37

BasilNow, our East versus West teardown. This week: Gilead and PepStar. Ning, the terms.

NingGilead is buying PepStar's oral pill that blocks the I-L twenty-three receptor, for about one point three billion dollars, all in cash at closing, for worldwide rights. No milestones or royalties have been disclosed. [12][13]

Editor's note: the exact price is US$1.275B.

NingIt's in Phase One. Citi noted there's no published clinical data. And Gilead expects an earnings hit of about eighty cents a share this quarter. [12][14]

Editor's note: Gilead guides a US$0.79–0.83 impact on Q4 2026 EPS.

BasilNow, the Western twin.

NingThat's Johnson and Johnson's Icotyde, a once-a-day pill aimed at the same receptor. It grew out of a twenty-seventeen deal with California's Protagonist: fifty million dollars upfront, and up to about nine hundred and forty million in milestones. [13][15][16]

Editor's note: the 2017 Janssen–Protagonist deal (PTG-200) set out a US$50M initial payment, opt-in payments of US$125M and US$200M, and up to US$615M in further milestones. Icotyde (icotrokinra) is a later compound from that collaboration.

BasilFifty million upfront for the pioneer. About one point three billion for the fast follower from Shanghai.

NingWith caveats. In twenty-seventeen, Johnson and Johnson was paying for an unproven oral approach. Today an oral pill is approved. And analysts say PepStar's edge could be less frequent dosing, possibly weekly, plus an all-oral combination with a Gilead drug. [13][15]

BasilHere's my read. China isn't being paid for invention here. It's paid for speed, and a better profile on a proven target. That's a repeatable playbook. The risk is buyers paying late-stage prices for early-stage assets.

Sources

12. Gilead press release (US$1.275B; worldwide rights; Q4 EPS impact). https://www.gilead.com/news/news-details/2026/gilead-to-acquire-investigational-oral-il-23r-inhibitor-hcxt-2001-strengthening-its-inflammation-pipeline-in-ibd

13. Fierce Biotech, with BMO's view. https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gilead-pay-13b-upfront-pepstars-oral-il-23-challenger-jjs-icotyde

14. Reuters via StreetInsider, with Citi's comment. https://www.streetinsider.com/Reuters/Gilead+to+buy+PepStars+inflammation+drug+program+in+%241.28+billion+deal/27222923.html

15. Janssen–Protagonist 2017 release. https://www.jnj.com/media-center/press-releases/janssen-enters-into-worldwide-exclusive-license-and-collaboration-agreement-with-protagonist-therapeutics-inc-for-the-oral-interlukin-23-receptor-antagonist-drug-candidate-for-the-treatment-of-inflammatory-bowel-disease

16. Protagonist Form 8-K, May 2017. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1377121/000119312517186271/d406513d8k.htm

Scorecard 7:13

BasilTime for the scorecard. Upfront cash versus headline value.

NingPepStar: about one point three billion upfront, and that's the whole deal. One hundred percent upfront. [12]

NingHansoh and Roche: about half a billion dollars upfront and in year one, against more than fifteen billion in milestones. Roughly three percent. [17]

Editor's note: the terms are US$400M upfront plus a US$110M first-anniversary payment, against potentially more than US$15B in milestones.

NingHUTCHMED and GSK closed on October twenty-first: a hundred and ten million dollars upfront, out of up to about one point three billion. About eight percent. [18]

Editor's note: the figures are US$110M of about US$1.295B, or about 8.5%.

NingAnd from Korea: BioMarin paid Hanmi and GC Biopharma seventy million dollars upfront for a monthly enzyme therapy for Fabry disease, out of up to four hundred and seventy-five million. About fifteen percent. [19]

Editor's note: the deal was announced on 29 October; the upfront is payable under the agreement.

BasilKorea has the healthiest ratio on the board. A drug already in patients, a smaller headline, and more of the cash at signing.

Editor's note: this means the healthiest ratio among the milestone-based licensing deals. PepStar is an outright 100%-cash acquisition of the programme.

BasilAnd the bigger trend?

NingOne industry tracker counted twenty-two China cross-border deals from mid-August to mid-October: about twenty-four billion dollars in headline value, but only about one and a half billion disclosed upfront. At least eight of the ten biggest were for drugs not yet tested in people. [20]

Editor's note: the tracker reports more than US$1.5B in upfront payments, from the seven deals that disclose it.

BasilSo headlines are mostly option value. Cash is the real price. Now, the policy overhang.

NingOn October twenty-second, the US Treasury proposed rules under a new US law that would restrict American investment in Chinese biotech, including brain-computer interfaces. Comments close December seventh. [21][22]

Editor's note: this is a proposed rule (NPRM) under the COINS Act, enacted in the FY2026 NDAA. It covers "countries of concern", including China, Hong Kong and Macau.

NingAt a conference in Korea, Joshua Resnick of US investor RA Capital said the rule, in its current form, could make it, quote, somewhere between hard and impossible to invest in China, or to spin out Chinese drugs into new companies. [23]

BasilRemember that brain-implant round? US money in Chinese brain tech could be off the table. More broadly, licensing deals pay in cash; spin-outs into new Western companies pay in shares. This rule targets the shares. My guess: more PepStar-style cash deals, and fewer spin-outs.

Editor's note: this is the host's view. The proposed rule covers equity and contingent-equity acquisitions, certain debt, joint ventures and greenfield investments. It does not list IP licensing as a covered transaction.

Sources

17. Hansoh Pharmaceutical, HKEX announcement (19 Oct 2026). https://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/1019/2026101900015.pdf

18. Tencent News, HUTCHMED–GSK closing [Chinese]. https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20261022A093OX00

19. Fierce Biotech, BioMarin–GC Biopharma/Hanmi. https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/biomarin-inks-475m-deal-expand-challenge-fabry-incumbents

20. CDMO Hub, China Drug Licensing Tracker, Edition 1. https://cdmohub.ai/blog/china-drug-licensing-tracker-edition-1

21. US Treasury press release, COINS Act NPRM (22 Oct 2026). https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0667/

22. US Treasury fact sheet and FAQs (comment period ends 7 Dec 2026; biotech scope includes brain-computer interfaces). https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/206/Fact-Sheet-FAQs-COINS-Act-NPRM.pdf

23. BioWorld, "COINS Act could upend China biotech deals as Korea eyes opening" (29 Oct 2026). https://www.bioworld.com/articles/735000-coins-act-could-upend-china-biotech-deals-as-korea-eyes-opening

Asia beyond China 9:27

BasilLet's head beyond China. North Asia first.

NingJapan. Roche's majority-owned Japanese drugmaker grew its nine-month core revenue seventeen percent, to just over one trillion yen. And Roche plans to hand back the rights to one of that company's antibodies, for spinal muscular atrophy. It could be developed again, or licensed out. [24]

Editor's note: Chugai's nine-month core revenue was ¥1,068.1B (+17.2%). The antibody is emugrobart.

BasilA Japanese antibody that could be back on the market for partners. Business development teams, take note.

NingTaiwan. PharmaEssentia's blood-cancer drug won a second approval in China in mid-October, for a rare disorder that causes too many platelets. Nine-month revenue hit almost twenty billion Taiwan dollars, more than all of last year. [25]

Editor's note: the drug is ropeginterferon alfa-2b, approved for essential thrombocythemia. Nine-month revenue was NT$19.74B.

BasilA Taiwanese company that built its own US sales force. Plenty of Asian biotechs talk about that. Few do it. [25]

NingSoutheast Asia. In Malaysia, TPG-controlled hospital group Asia OneHealthcare filed a draft listing prospectus on October twenty-ninth. It runs twenty-three hospitals, all but one in Malaysia, with net profit of about three hundred and forty million ringgit last year. [26]

Editor's note: the draft prospectus was on the Securities Commission Malaysia website by Wednesday 28 October and was reported on 29 October. Net profit was RM344.4M for the financial year ended March 2026.

NingIn Thailand, hospital group Bangkok Dusit Medical Services is paying a hundred and seventy million baht to take control of a local CAR-T cell therapy developer, lifting its stake from about twenty percent to fifty-five. [27][28]

NingIn Vietnam, the drugmaker that China's Livzon took control of in May grew its third-quarter profit about nine percent. Livzon holds it through a Singapore company. [29][30]

Editor's note: the company is Imexpharm. Livzon's tender offer closed on 23 April, and the transfer of control completed on 5 May 2026.

NingAnd in Singapore, Genie Health raised a three-million-dollar seed round, with Temasek-backed venture studio Liminal taking part. [31]

BasilNotice the flows. Thai hospitals buying into cell therapy. Chinese pharma buying Vietnamese manufacturing. Private equity cashing out Malaysian hospitals in public markets.

Editor's note: the proposed IPO includes a sale of existing shares by TPG's vehicle, which would keep about 73.9% afterwards. That is a partial sell-down, not a full exit.

NingAnd fresh money is coming in. US healthcare investor OrbiMed closed its sixth Asia fund in mid-October, at over a billion dollars. [32]

Sources

24. Chugai Pharmaceutical, Q3 2026 results. https://www.chugai-pharm.co.jp/english/news/detail/20261027170000_1297.html

25. DrugNews (Taiwan), PharmaEssentia. https://drugnews.com.tw/articles/2026-10-17-pharmaessentia-china-et-approval-race-en.html

26. The Star (Reuters), Asia OneHealthcare draft prospectus. https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2026/10/29/asia-onehealthcare-files-draft-prospectus-for-malaysia-ipo

27. Techsauce, BDMS (via RBH) investment, 19.9% to 55%. https://techsauce.co/news/bdms-rbh-invest-gnpt-170m-55-percent

28. Stock Exchange of Thailand, BDMS filing "Additional investment in Genepeutic Bio" [Thai]. https://www.set.or.th/th/market/news-and-alert/newsdetails?id=107122501&symbol=BDMS

29. Tin nhanh chứng khoán, Imexpharm Q3 2026 results [Vietnamese]. https://www.tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn/imexpharm-imp-bao-lai-quy-iii-tang-9-sau-khi-ve-tay-tap-doan-duoc-pham-trung-quoc-post400320.html

30. The Investor, Livzon takes control of Imexpharm. https://theinvestor.vn/chinese-firm-livzon-secures-control-of-vietnams-pharma-giant-imexpharm-in-228-mln-deal-d18975.html

31. The Business Times, Genie Health US$3M seed round. https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/startups-tech/startups/propertyguru-ex-ceos-ai-health-startup-genie-health-raises-us3-million-seed-funding

32. OrbiMed, new Global and Asia funds (15 Oct 2026). https://www.orbimed.com/orbimed-raises-3-billion-across-global-and-asia-private-equity-funds/

One thing to watch 11:34

BasilAnd finally, my one thing to watch: two deadlines. November fifteenth for Beijing's export catalogue. December seventh for Washington's investment rule. [3][22]

BasilBetween them, they'll shape how China assets reach the West next year: as clean cash licences, or through spin-out equity. If you're structuring a spin-out right now, read both documents before you sign.

Editor's note: this is general commentary, not legal advice. Take your own legal advice on any specific transaction.

NingAnd one near-term marker: Hemay's Hong Kong debut on November ninth. A live test of appetite for biotech listings without revenue. [9]

Outro 12:09

BasilThat's the pilot of The East-West Bio Brief. If it was useful, follow the show, and sign up for the newsletter. Every source is linked in the show notes.

NingTell us what you want us to read next. See you next week!

Disclosure 12:25

NingOur voices are AI-generated from our own; the views and research are ours.